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Please visit www.steveaustinlex.wordpress.com for info about peak oil in Lexington

What is Peak Oil Lexington all about?
We are raising awareness and discussion of imminent terminal global oil depletion and the potential consequences for our living standards, amongst many other things. If you want to know more, click on the links in the Blog at left

What do you believe in?
Based on the research on very experienced geologists using official figures we believe that the global peak, followed by a permanent decline of oil production, is to be expected sometime soon within the next decade. We do not see any viable ‘solutions’ to enable business as usual. We do not believe enough is being done to prepare for it.

Who are you?
Right now, “we” are Steve Austin. Ideally, in the near future, we will be a growing collection of Lexington citizens dedicated to raising awareness of this issue and looking for solutions.

I think there are more important things to worry about like global warming.
Oil depletion and global warming are twin terrors. But peak oil will mean more to your daily life than climate change.

Are you a bunch of doom-mongering conspiracy theorists?
It is up to individuals as to what they do with the information. We prefer to stick to the fundamentals – the current nature of oil depletion and the likely consequences which we can judge from previous oil shocks and also by rising oil prices on countries throughout the world. As a group we do not suggest any conspiracy and any doom-mongering is based on the simple premise that we are a society based on oil and we need to find a way to live and prosper with continually more expensive, and less, oil. Failure to prepare for this will aggravate a very difficult period with economic hardship for a large number of people as a key feature.


Why are you doing this? Are you a bunch of pinko-commie tree-hugging radicals?
Far from being a bunch of radicals, we like the fact that we can have hot showers! We like cheap food from around the world. We like cheap medicines. We like high levels of employment and a strong economy. Who wouldn't? Unfortunately this is all based on oil and when oil goes into decline the system we currently experience will undergo serious challenges. We want to see the best levels of mitigation possible initiated. We appreciate and emphasize the importance of maintaining a sustainable environment. If you read out statement of beliefs it may help you understand our position further.

Who funds you?
No one – this is a true grass-roots cause

I do not believe that you are correct in your support of the ‘peak oil’ argument.
We would not be wasting our time raising awareness of this issue unless we 100% believed in it. If you are not convinced we would be happy to talk to you further.

Why should I become a “member”?
The “member” option on the site gets you on the mailing list for our useful updates and also creates an account for you should you wish to post.

Source: Herald-Times)trackingBy Dawn Hewitt, Herald-Times, Bloomington, Ind.

Apr. 3, 2009--There's only so much oil on our planet, and it is not a renewable resource. The easy-to-reach deposits will be used up first, then it will become more expensive to reach or pump or transport. Production has been increasing on an upward curve since oil's discovery. But that can't continue forever, since supplies are finite.

Meanwhile, the Earth's population is growing, as is the demand for creature comforts and development -- all of which depend on oil.

Some fear that the end of cheap oil will bring harsh consequences. That's why the city of Bloomington has established a Peak Oil Task Force, chaired by City Councilman David Rollo.

The task force is preparing a report on its findings and will present it to the Bloomington City Council sometime this summer.

Down to Earth asked Rollo to explain.

QUESTION: What does "peak oil" mean?

ANSWER: The term "peak oil" is shorthand for the impending global peak in petroleum production. The phenomenon has already been observed on a smaller scale in many of the major fields, and in many countries (famously, the United States, which peaked in 1971). There are many indications that we are near or have already peaked in global production: 1. Most large fields are in decline, 2. For every four barrels used currently only one is discovered, and 3. We now know that the observed rate of decline of the largest fields in the world is about 9 percent, meaning that a new Saudi Arabia's production must come online every 18 months to offset this decline just to stay even.

Q: Why does the city of Bloomington need a task force to prepare for the occurrence of peak oil?

A: We are living in a century of global resource limits, and it appears that one of the first to be met will be oil. Without substitutes, our society will experience a severe decline in energy availability. Bloomington will experience this energy scarcity, as will the world at large. The purpose of the task force is to explore our vulnerability to cheap energy, and advise policy makers and the public on courses of action to adapt.

Q: It's pretty obvious that peak oil will affect transportation, but what else?

A: Food is affected because the current industrial production model is so reliant on energy inputs in the form of fuel, chemicals, fertilizers and so forth. It is not difficult to imagine that high fuel costs and/or volatility will affect food prices and availability. To guard against this, we should prepare by examining our "foodshed" and attempt to minimize distances from producers and consumers. Growing food organically and biointensively is a direction that communities can take to insure food security.

Other sectors include manufacturing, mining and financial. Globalization, with its long trade routes, is particularly vulnerable.

Q: Why should a local government plan and prepare for economic mechanisms of the marketplace that are beyond its control?

A: Local governments should prepare for a number of reasons. One is that we have a responsibility to our constituents to look ahead and prepare for the future. Two, the federal government has essentially ignored the problem, or is focused on the supply side. Three, local governments can assess their own needs and vulnerabilities, and because of their scale, can act more nimbly to address the problem.

The problem is so severe and immediate that action should occur on all levels. We can do little to address the supply side locally, but we are not helpless when it comes to the demand side -- far from it. Reducing our use of fuels, making sure that we have backups in the event of shortages, and limiting our exposure by relocalizing food production are prudent steps to take.

Q: Why is this task force a worthy use of city resources in terms of city council and staff time, citizen volunteers?

A: The resources used are small, and mostly consist of volunteer effort. The threat, on the other hand, is significant, and is undeniably serious.

Q: Skeptics think "peak oil" and "transition" are the new facade of survivalists. How is peak oil preparation different from survivalism?

A: The same was said about those warning of climate change by the skeptics not too long ago. And because of this denial, much time was wasted. What is clear is that we are reaching global limits of resources. I prefer to live in a society that is flourishing, not simply surviving. But we are acting irresponsibly, especially when it comes to future generations, and ignoring this problem may well create circumstances that compromise our survival.

Q: Why won't supply and demand force oil prices higher, resulting in alternatives -- perhaps new technologies -- that will prevent the effects of peak oil from being so drastic?

A: This is the contention of many economists, and has many problems.

The first is the time required to adapt, which was explored in the Hirsch Report (Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management,2005, www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf). What he and his colleagues found was that a nondisruptive adaptation would require a crash effort 20 years in advance of the event. Therefore, waiting for it to occur for the market to send price signals is an extremely hazardous course of action.

Another problem is that of price volatility. After reaching $147 per barrel last August, the economy collapsed, as did demand.

Current output is adequate to meet the current weak demand, but we now know (from the International Energy Agency's latest Global Petroleum Outlook) that the largest fields in the world have a collective annual decline rate of at least 6.5 percent. The IEA is extremely worried that the current prices are not sufficient to sustain the investment needed to bring future supplies on-stream, as well as new technologies and substitutes.

Another problem is that there is no single substitute for oil in terms of the scale required, its energy density, and energy return on energy invested, or net energy return. "Solutions" like oil shales and tar sands are net-energy poor. Ethanol is not scalable without affecting our food supply, and is currently net-energy poor as well.

-----

Steve Austin
Panelist
2nd Energizing Kentucky Conference
September 18, 19, 2008
Thomas Freidman, Keynote
Utah Governor Rick Huntsman and Kentucky Governor Steve Beshear Presenting


I will talk this morning about how, because of the transportation choices we’ve made, Kentuckians, and in fact most Americans, face a significant period of adjustment over the next decade or so

These choices in how we built our towns, where we lived, how we worked, and what we ate have left us completely exposed to new global energy realities
We are a car dependent nation – we are, as President Bush has said – "addicted to oil"
This price of this addiction will be steep, and withdrawal painful – but if we plan for it right, a better time could emerge

Gas for our cars wont disappear certainly – but it most likely will get grotesquely expensive

The foreshocks of this are just beginning

Global demand is surging, despite recent drops in price

This is no surprise

In 2007, for the first time in human history, more people live in cities than in countryside
City dwellers use more petroleum than rural folks

And now we have over 3 billion urbanites and growing competing for a single transportable energy resource – oil

The so called emerging economies are creating millions of newly minted middle class workers as well

China alone could add over 400 million in the coming years

They too will demand more

The US, despite adding 110 million more people over the next 3 decades, will still have less than 5% of the world’s population – we cant affect demand and are thus simply along for the ride

At the same time, the supply side of the equation is shadowed by peak oil
Peak oil is defined as the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached , after which the rate of production cannot keep pace with global demand

So the perfect storm is brewing of rapidly increasing demand and dwindling supply meaning that prices could rise to ridiculously scary levels

Some people think that Peak Oil is already here - Matt Simmons, energy advisor to George W Bush says

"peak oil is likely already a crisis that we don’t know about – at the furthest out it will be a crisis by 2012."

Charles Maxwell, called the "world’s wisest energy analyst" predicts that peak oil production will arrive by 2015.

President Bush, in March of 2008, said, "It should be obvious to all, demand has outstripped supply, which makes prices go up."

Want more proof – look at Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia has more than twice the amount of proven oil reserves as the next closest nation (Iraq)

Yet the Saudi government has already envisioned its economic future – and it is no longer centered exclusively on oil

the Saudi government is building four entirely new cities powered by renewable energy and devoted to technology and knowledge in an effort to begin the diversification of its economy away from oil

What does it tell us when the world’s largest oil producer is planning for the day when oil wont be enough to run its economy?

But aren’t there alternatives? – I mean, we are America – and as Dick Cheney said, “the American way of life is not negotiable,” isn’t it?

Well, while there is the hope of new technologies and fuels- hybrids, plugins, solar cars, biofuels, non-conventional oil, etc…

their riding in to our rescue is too far off to eliminate our exposure to high prices today
even if all our efforts were devoted to these today, the Department of Energy estimates that it would take at best 10-20 years to really have a fundamental impact
What happens to Kentuckians in the intervening decades?

Plus many of these come with their own high monetary and environmental costs – therefore there is likely to be significant debate about going down many of those roads
So some reason for optimism, but not for a long while

I guess another way out of this is armed conflict

A national candidate recently said: "we are a nation at war, and in many ways the reasons for war are fights over energy resources, which is nonsensical."

That was Sarah Palin

I think this is an implication that we ought to be energy independent

But I also thought that the wars we were fighting were against terrorism and not for energy resources

But anyway, she makes a good point – no more wars for foreign oil.

Well, many people are asking, we can drill here in the US cant we?
But where?
The oceans?

Thanks to global warming…and its intensified hurricanes and storms puts that kind of production at great risk for the producers, let alone for the environment
last week Ike, a relatively modest category 2 storm destroyed at least 10 oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico

did anyone notice the spike in gas prices?

What about Alaska?
Even Sarah Palin says that in the areas of the currently off-limits Arctic National Wildlife Refuge that have been explored -and I’m quoting – "have about a year and a half’s worth of U.S. oil consumption"

this is a good thing?

Now the oil and gas companies in the US are putting out ads now that tout the availability of our on and off shore reserves to quote "power 60 million cars for 60 years"
Sounds great until you realize that there are over 250 million cars alone in the US – that doesn’t even count trucks or buses

So I guess our reserves are more likely to power us for something like 20 years….whoo
Even if we were to drill more in our country, what is the guarantee that private business will somehow sell this oil, "our" oil to us at reasonable prices?

Absolutely none
To avoid this, are we prepared to do something like nationalize our oil industry?
To create a system of production to protect our citizens?
Given the amount of money at stake, I doubt it

That brings me to my main point that Kentucky faces a significant period of adjustment to the new energy realities

First, this period of readjustment is likely to hit us as individuals very deeply in our wallets.
We all know Kentucky is a poor state. More people, especially more young people, are living in poverty now than just a few years ago.

Incomes are declining
Health insurance costs are skyrocketing
And now this – a fundamental re-ordering of the global energy economy –
And without some changes, we have very little way to escape it

This will affect us across our lives –because we will have to pay more to feed our gas tanks, we will have less money for simple things like going out to the movies
Or for far more important things such as making hard choices about saving for the education our children need to compete in the global economy or maintaining our car dependent lifestyle

These costs are straining business as well
Businesses are faced with rising prices at the exact same time that their customers incomes are declining due to global competition

Finally, these trends will affect local governments
Protecting and serving sprawling cities and towns will get increasingly more expensive
School systems will feel the strain too - many are already considering a 4-day school week to save money on fuel

This brings up an interesting question – with both parents working harder for less, what happens to the kids on the day or days that they are not in school?
The bottom line facing most communities will be higher taxes or less services.
And we cannot expect the state or federal government to bail anyone out.

Thus the price of our "addiction to oil"

Where do we go from here?
Short Term
We must begin planning to reduce our exposure to global petroleum realities
Nations around the world, and cities around the country, are already planning for a low petroleum future

We can begin immediately here at home with some very simple things
We must realign our planning and development codes to better integrate our daily lives –
We must get away from the zoning philosophy that everything should be separated from everywhere else

We shouldn’t have to use a ½ gallon of gas to buy a quart of milk

We also need to ensure that neither zoning nor other city codes stand in the way of urban food production and distribution

Communities must get serious about building sidewalks and greenways, removing any barriers to car sharing, and find ways to increase carpooling and transit use
Finally our communities need to create plans for disruptions to the liquid energy flow – ensure that there are reserves for emergency vehicles, that food supply wont be compromised

In the Longer Term
Our communities must begin to make the transition from an outside, consumption focused model
- one that therefore leaves us terribly exposed –
to one where communities become re-localized
self dependent economically
environmentally
and energy wise
This means re-imagining how we can live and then acting so as to better prepare future generations for the realities we see

We must rethink energy creation - moving from a centralized grid to a distributed grid of individual producers

We must rethink economic development – focus on creating place based, un-outsourceable jobs utilizing local skills, local materials and local brain power on universal problems

much of these efforts can center on energy and the environment – improving sources of power, new efficiencies for its use, mitigating impacts

We must begin creating new physical relationships between were we work and were we live and shop

this will demand a new transportation model
individual cars will still be great tools,
but not absolute necessities
these new live-work, shop, play relationships will foster walking, biking, and transit
and all will lower our exposure

We must redefine what makes a successful school – smaller, less centralized, more disbursed, more walkable

We must re-create our relationship to food
in this new economy distance will matter a great deal –
much like it did 100 years ago –
the salad from Mexico and the meat from Brazil wont be as affordable
local food will become THE food

And all of this will require serious regional cooperation – no one community can do it all themselves

To conclude:
We are addicted to gasoline and the oil that its made from – that addiction comes at a high price economically, socially, physically, environmentally –
Kentuckians could be in danger of being left out to dry in the new energy economy
I hope that I am a chicken little in all this – I hope that I am dead wrong - I have a family and I love Kentucky

But even at its worst, I can still imagine an even better future
When times are toughest, our best can shine thru